Social stress, jobs, and housing

Social stress is where a shock shows up in households: the Sahm rule on unemployment, jobless claims, U-6, delinquencies, debt service, and housing inventory, pending sales, and price cuts. Labor and housing often lag oil and rates, so this page is the amplification layer — fragility after the first move, not a GDP forecast.

Latest stored readings as of 2026-11-10: New-home months supply 8.40 (2026-09-01); Existing-home inventory 4.58 (2026-09-01); Redfin inventory YoY -9.14% (2026-05-01); Redfin pending YoY 0.89% (2026-05-01); Redfin price-drop share 19.96% (2026-05-01); Real wage growth 1.00% (2026-10-01); Consumer sentiment -12.70 (2026-09-01); Credit-card delinquency -0.10% (2026-04-01).

What is the Sahm rule on this page?: The Sahm rule uses unemployment momentum as a recession-stress indicator. This tab also tracks jobless claims, U-6, delinquencies, and Redfin housing demand as household amplification.

Also on this dashboard: Macro Early Warning · Macro Early Warning: AI bubble, oil, debt, and social stress · Iran and Hormuz oil risk · US rates, Treasuries, and debt stress · AI bubble and equity stretch · Dividend and DCF equity screen · Data health and source freshness · Privacy Policy

Informational only — not investment advice.

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